U.S. Economy Shrinks for Second Straight Quarter, Igniting Recession Fears (Axios) National GDP growth fell at an annualized rate of 0.9% from April to June in 2022. This decline was driven by slowed inventory investment, declining consumption, and lower levels of housing consumption and business investment in equipment, software, and new buildings. Colloquially, two quarters of consecutive negative growth indicate a recession. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially labels recessions, has yet to make this designation—citing a strong labor market, among other factors.

U.S. Federal Reserve Delivers Second Rate Hike (Reuters) On July 27^th, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points (0.75 percent) in an attempt to tame inflation. The Fed’s overnight rate is now between 2.25% and 2.50%– closer to a “neutral” rate, where monetary policy is no longer encouraging borrowing or investment. Chairman Powell indicated he would like to see “demand running below potential for a sustained period to create slack” and bring price rises down. “While jobs gains have remained ‘robust,’ […] ‘recent indicators of spending and production have softened,’ a nod to the fact that the aggressive rate hikes they have put in place since March are beginning to bite.”

Consumer Price Index Unchanged in July (Bureau of Labor Statistics) The BLS’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) did not change in July from June. The zero percent change is the result of price decreases in energy (largely fuel oil, gasoline, and energy commodities), transportation, and used vehicles netted with price increases in the rest of the basket. While month-over-month prices were flat, year-over-year prices in July were up 8.5%.

Economic Outlook

U.S. Economy Sending Mixed Signals: Here’s What it All Means (Associated Press) The U.S. economy is sending contradictory signals driven by a range of economic indicators. Overall, economic growth is down due to a widening trade deficit and decreasing company inventories, which do not necessarily reflect underlying economic decline. Inflation was at 9.1% in June (compared to June 2021), outpacing wage growth and eating into profit margins. Despite this, consumer spending remains high, and the job market remains strong, adding ~457,000 jobs per month. But a slight increase in initial unemployment claims suggest the labor market might weaken soon.

U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Weigh Fed Rate Hike Outlook (CNBC) U.S. 10- and 30-year Treasury yields fell in early August and the 2-to-10-year curve inversion deepened. In normal economic circumstances, the yield on the 10-year should be greater than the 2-year, creating a positive spread. The curve from 2 to 10-year Treasuries (called the 10-2 spread) is an oft-used economic indicator. When the curve inverts (yield spread goes negative meaning the 2-year yield is greater than the 10-year yield) it typically indicates an oncoming recession. This represents the market signaling lower growth and inflation prospects and greater likelihood that a bad credit event is more likely in the near-term (i.e., within two years) than over the long run. Yields may be moving in response to a good jobs report as early August economic data indicated a stronger than expected labor market. A strong labor market coupled with high inflation makes aggressive rate hikes from the Fed more likely. The threat of future rate hikes could help explain Treasury market behavior.

SEDE News

Andrew Deye

Vice President and Head of Strategy

JobsOhio

SEDE Spotlight: Andrew Deye is Vice President and Head of Strategy at JobsOhio, the state’s private economic development corporation. In this role, Andrew leads strategy, global business development, data and research functions. Since its creation in 2011, JobsOhio and its partners have supported over 3,000 investment projects – including over 500 foreign direct investment opportunities.

Prior to joining JobsOhio in 2015, Andrew was an investment banker in New York and Chicago, where he worked on public-private partnerships, privatizations, financings and acquisitions. Andrew graduated from Georgetown University with a bachelor’s degree in business administration and obtained a master’s degree from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

Trade

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in June; Inventories Increase (Reuters) A surge in exports narrowed the U.S. goods trade deficit by 5.6% to $98.2 billion in June. “Goods exports increased by $4.4 billion to $181.5 billion. Imports of goods fell by $1.5 billion to $279.7 billion. The anticipated contribution to gross domestic product from the smaller trade gap is likely to offset an expected drag from inventories.”

How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture (Tax Foundation) U.S. tariffs on China and retaliatory tariffs from China have hurt U.S. agriculture and may impact future production. Import tariffs raise prices for consumers by adding a de facto tax on inbound goods. Export tariffs may raise prices for domestic consumers through a different mechanism. Export tariffs implicitly limit total exports by making goods relatively expensive compared to goods in the target economy’s domestic market. Thus, companies produce goods in excess (because they sell fewer goods abroad) and must sell excess production to the domestic market. This drives prices down in the short run which may incent producers to divest from future production. Less investment in future production means lower productive capacity and thus higher prices in the long run.

Industry Trends

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slows Modestly in July (Al Jazeera) According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), U.S. manufacturing slowed in July as production and orders declined and inventories increased. The ISM’s factory activity measurement index declined to 52.8 from 53 a month earlier. Results above 50 indicate that the manufacturing sector is expanding and below 50 indicate it is contracting. The ISM index peaked in March 2021 and has come down nearly 11 points since. Concurrently, the New York Federal Reserve said its Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged by 42 points in August to -31.3. That marks the second-largest monthly decline on record for this closely watched gauge of economic activity. The biggest drop was recorded in April 2020, when the economy was ravaged by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. (CNN)

Biden Signs Massive Climate and Healthcare Legislation (Associated Press) On Tuesday August 16th, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest federal climate investment in U.S. history. The legislation allocates $375 billion over a decade to fight climate change. It also has substantial healthcare provisions, capping prescription drug costs at $2,000 out-of-pocket annually for Medicare recipients and helping 13 million people pay premiums over the next three years for privately bought health insurance under the Affordable Care Act. Despite its name, “nonpartisan analysts say [the IRA] will have a barely perceptible impact on prices.”

Congress Passes and Biden Signs the CHIPS Act (State Science and Technology Institute – SSTI) Congress approved (and President Biden signed) the $50+ billion CHIPS Act which is designed to incentivize semiconductor manufacturing facilities, create a Regional Technology Hubs program, and authorize funding for many science-related agencies including new clean energy programs and additional funding authorized for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) to $550 million by FY 2025 and to $250 million by FY 2027 for Manufacturing USA. These funding levels are authorized but Congress will still need to appropriate actual funding.

(Chart Source: Van Scoyoc Associates)

Workforce

Long COVID is Sidelining Millions of Workers from Their Jobs (NPR) Brookings estimates that 4 million full-time equivalent workers (2.4% of the working population) are out of work because of long COVID. The Biden administration has tried to address the issue by indicating long COVID should be treated as a disability under the Americans with Disabilities Act. While some employers are trying to accommodate, not all can afford to do so. And because long COVID is so new, it is difficult to know when an employee is improving and ready to adopt more normal working conditions.

U.S. Settles Claims Against Poultry Producers Over Worker Treatment (Reuters) U.S. poultry processers Cargill, Sanderson Farms, and Wayne Farms have agreed to pay over $84 million in restitution to workers harmed by information sharing designed to drive down compensation. Cargill Meat Solutions will pay $15 million, Sanderson will pay $38.3 million, and Wayne $31.5 million. Cargill denies allegations of information sharing. The Justice Department also reached a settlement with Cargill and Continental Grain who recently made a deal to buy Sanderson Farms. Sanderson will be combined with Wayne Farms, a Continental Grain subsidiary. The Justice Department settlement prevents the companies from lowering the base pay of chicken growers and from retaliating against growers who raise antitrust concerns with the government.

US Department of Labor Awards $121m In Apprenticeship Building America Grants to Expand, Diversify, Modernize Registered Apprenticeship Programs (U.S. Department of Labor) The DOL announced an award of more than $121 million in Apprenticeship Building America grants to strengthen and modernize Registered Apprenticeship programs. The department awarded more than $58 million of the total funding to grantees focusing on equity partnerships and pre-apprenticeship activities. The Apprenticeship Building America grant program advances the department’s efforts to expand and modernize Registered Apprenticeship by increasing the number of programs and apprentices, diversifying the industries that use Registered Apprenticeship and improving the access to and performance of Registered Apprenticeship Programs for underrepresented and underserved communities.

Finance & Incentives

DOE Announces $2.6 Billion Funding Opportunities for Carbon Capture, Storage and Transport Projects (JDSUPRA) The Department of Energy announced they will begin soliciting applications for funding for two programs from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill: The Carbon Capture Demonstration Projects Program and the Carbon Dioxide Transport/Front-End Engineering Design Program. The Carbon Capture Demonstration Projects Program will focus on projects that demonstrate substantial improvements in the efficiency, effectiveness, cost, and environmental performance of carbon capture technologies for power, industrial, and other commercial applications. The Carbon Dioxide Transport/Front-End Engineering Design Program seeks to fund Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) studies for regional carbon dioxide pipeline systems to safely transport CO2 from key sources to centralized locations.

Lynchburg EDA Selected to Receive $500K from EPA for Brownfield Redevelopment (NewsAdvance) Lynchburg’s Economic Development Authority has been again slotted to receive $500,000 in assessment grants from the Environmental Protection Agency. According to a news release, funding dedicated to the assessment of sites potentially affected by hazardous substances and petroleum will be used to conduct Phase I and Phase II environmental site assessments, cleanup and redevelopment planning and community engagement activities.

Blockchain Technology Company Growing HQ In Utah (Business Facilities) Financial innovation and liquidity provider tZERO Group, Inc. will invest over $2 million and create 80 new jobs at its Utah headquarters over the next eight years. The company offers institutional-grade solutions for issuers looking to digitize their capitalization table through blockchain technology and trade on a regulated alternative trading system. In support of its expansion in Utah, tZERO Group has been awarded a temporary, marginal tax reduction by the Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity (Go Utah). The post-performance corporate incentive is part of the Economic Development Tax Increment Financing (EDTIF) program.

The Bank Of London To Create 350 Jobs In North Carolina (Business Facilities) The Bank of London plans to expand its United States footprint by opening its US Global Platform & Services headquarters in Charlotte, NC. The project will create 350 new jobs by 2026. The world’s first purpose-built global clearing, agency, and transaction bank, The Bank of London is headquartered in London and has offices in New York and Belfast. New positions at the US Global Platform and Services division will include software development, compliance and risk, technology operations, infrastructure engineering and business operations. Mecklenburg and surrounding counties can expect an annual payroll impact of nearly $33 million when fully staffed.

The State Economic Development Executives (SEDE) Network engages in regular events throughout the year. State Economic Development.org lists these activities and offers an interactive forum for discussion among peers. The website is currently undergoing some minor reorganization including adding resources on how state and local economic development districts can align strategies and collaborate on activities.

The SEDE Steering Committee includes: Sandra Watson (AZ), Chair; Mike Preston (AR); Kurt Foreman (DE); Don Pierson (LA); Kevin McKinnon (MN); Christopher Chung (NC); Alicia Keyes (NM); Michael Brown (NV); Andrew Deye (OH); Sophorn Cheang (OR); Adriana Cruz (TX); Joan Goldstein (VT); Lisa Brown (WA) and Mike Graney (WV).

Leif Olson led the development of this Bulletin; for further questions on the content in this Bulletin or for information on the SEDE Network contact Bob Isaacson, CREC Senior Vice President, at bisaacson@crec.net.

State Economic Development Executives Network (SEDE)

State Economic Development Bulletin – August 2022

State Economic Development Bulletin